COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
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Healthcare Infrastructure – The Challenges

Bulletin 14 | Nicola Oliver

We are reliant upon healthcare capacity to reduce the severity of this pandemic in terms of morbidity and mortality.

One of the key challenges will be how a health system copes in times of increased demand. This is contingent upon:

  1. Existing capacity – beds, staff, other resources
  2. Ability to create extra capacity – repurposing of hospital space and re-allocating staff

Ratios of healthcare staff to patients in the UK are much lower than many other countries therefore the ability to deal with a surge in demand is much lower.

The UK has fewer ICU and general acute beds per 100,000 population compared to other countries, and bed occupancy rates are high. Currently acute general beds are running at up to 92% occupancy in some hospital trusts and ICU at around 83%.

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Nicola Oliver

Director of Life & Health - Medical Intelligence

Nicola is considered a leading expert in Public Health and associated Mortality, Morbidity & Longevity risk.

Areas of specialist knowledge include; public health policy, socioeconomic disparities, impact of risk behaviours on life expectancy & future infectious disease risks.

Nicola supports actuaries from many of the leading consultancies, pension & insurance companies in Europe and the US, with underwriting, annuity pricing, product development as well as internal model calibration to fulfil regulatory requirement.

She leads a small research team within Medical Intelligence and continues to regularly present her work and speak at events for and on behalf of clients and to wider public audiences.

Prior to co-founding Medical Intelligence in 2007, Nicola worked for the NHS for 19 years specialising in Public Health, this followed many years in senior roles in Intensive Care Nursing and Paediatrics.

Nicola trained as a nurse and subsequently studied at Homerton College University of Cambridge, graduating with a PgDip in Neonatal Special and Intensive Care followed up with a BSc (Hons) in Public Health (Specialist Community).

Nicola has also studied Epidemiology with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Statistics.

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