Development of the pandemic in the UK and similar countries

Bulletin 21

In order to make meaningful international comparisons of the impact of the pandemic, it is important to allow for the dates at which infections began to take off in different countries and the relative population sizes. This Bulletin adjusts for these factors, to provide a more appropriate comparison.

Counts of numbers infected are not a reliable basis for comparison, as generally only a small proportion of the population has been tested. This varies a great deal between countries. There is no firm basis for knowing the true level of infection country-wide. Instead we concentrate on deaths reported involving coronavirus. Even though this is a firmer foundation, there are significant differences between countries in what is reported, and whether the numbers include deaths in hospital, deaths in care homes or total deaths including those in the community.

Other relevant factors determining the death rate are the age and gender of those affected. Preliminary consideration is given to the age and gender-related impact of deaths. Other factors which may be relevant to the impact of the pandemic are not analysed here. These include population density, connectedness between different parts of the country and the genetic make-up of the population.