COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Vaccines and antivirals

Bulletin 25 | Nicola Oliver

An effective vaccine will ultimately allow life to return to normal, but the development process is lengthy and success is not guaranteed. In this bulletin we present an overview of potential vaccine candidates. We also discuss other pharmaceutical approaches, such as antiviral drugs.

At the time of writing, there are around nine clinical trials in humans in progress to test a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in phases 1 and 2. The overall ‘from phase 1 to approval’ success rate is no more than 15%. There are, however, many antiviral drug trials at the more advanced phase 3. Cautious optimism is the key here.

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Nicola Oliver

Director of Life & Health - Medical Intelligence

Nicola is considered a leading expert in Public Health and associated Mortality, Morbidity & Longevity risk.

Areas of specialist knowledge include; public health policy, socioeconomic disparities, impact of risk behaviours on life expectancy & future infectious disease risks.

Nicola supports actuaries from many of the leading consultancies, pension & insurance companies in Europe and the US, with underwriting, annuity pricing, product development as well as internal model calibration to fulfil regulatory requirement.

She leads a small research team within Medical Intelligence and continues to regularly present her work and speak at events for and on behalf of clients and to wider public audiences.

Prior to co-founding Medical Intelligence in 2007, Nicola worked for the NHS for 19 years specialising in Public Health, this followed many years in senior roles in Intensive Care Nursing and Paediatrics.

Nicola trained as a nurse and subsequently studied at Homerton College University of Cambridge, graduating with a PgDip in Neonatal Special and Intensive Care followed up with a BSc (Hons) in Public Health (Specialist Community).

Nicola has also studied Epidemiology with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Statistics.

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