COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Longer-term Mortality and Morbidity Impacts of the Pandemic

Bulletin 45

In addition to the short term mortality effects of the pandemic (deaths caused directly and indirectly by the coronavirus) and the medium term effects (from the impact of fewer obese people and diabetics in the surviving population, for instance), there will be many longer-term effects.

This Bulletin considers the plausible mortality and morbidity consequences in respect of economic shock, physiological impacts on ‘severe symptoms’ survivors, behavioural changes, and mental health.

We conclude that the sum total of these is likely to be material and negative, although we do not try to quantify the impact.

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Matthew Edwards

Actuary & Director - Willis Towers Watson

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses.

He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

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Andrew Gaches

Partner, Head of Longevity - Hymans Robertson

Andrew has 25 years consulting experience, advising pension funds, insurers and reinsurers, and leads Hymans Robertson’s award-winning longevity services for insurance clients.

His expertise was central to the establishment of Club Vita and he now focuses on guiding clients through the process of recognising, quantifying and managing the longevity risk they face.

Andrew is a regular speaker at conferences, has written articles and authored papers on longevity, and is a long standing member of CMI committees and working parties.

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