Louis RossouwThere are significant difficulties measuring, analysing and interpreting various numbers related to COVID-19. In turn, there are also difficulties with reported deaths and excess deaths.
In this article we assess and compare excess deaths with reported death figures for South Africa and show some estimates as to the extent of under-reporting.
We estimate that only ~26% of South Africa’s excess deaths are reported. This highlights the challenges with under-reporting.
It is likely that the majority of the excess deaths relate directly to COVID-19 but there may also be
some excess death attributable to health system constraints.
The conclusion then, as has been observed in the UK and elsewhere, is that the best measure of the overall impact of the pandemic is through calculating excess deaths.
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Adele Groyer
John Roberts
Andrew Pijper
Rebecca Sloan
