COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Vaccine Acceptance and Effectiveness

Bulletin 101 | Josephine Robertson and Nicola Oliver

With mass COVID-19 vaccination underway across the world, hopes are high for an end to the pandemic. However, it’s not enough for a vaccine to be effective in an clinical trial context. Vaccines can be effective only once they have been administered; and that effectiveness may also differ from that seen in trials.

In this bulletin, we consider what influences people to agree to a vaccine, how this can be understood with reference to diffusion theory, and how the monitoring of real-world effectiveness (likely to differ from that of trials) can help influence people to be vaccinated.

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Josephine Robertson

Health & Care Actuary

Josephine Robertson is a Health and Care actuary with keen interest in the interplay of demographic risk, public health, policy, health systems and insurance industry.

Working with pension schemes, insurers and reinsurers, Josephine has experience in the ongoing management of demographic risk, including longevity, mortality, and morbidity. Josephine applies this expertise, alongside public health knowledge, when working in the public interest on the provision and sustainability of universal health coverage.

Josephine has a MA in Economics, a Master of Public Health, is a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary.

She is an active volunteer within the actuarial profession including the COVID-19 Action Taskforce, professional education process and the Population Health Management research working party.

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Nicola Oliver

Director of Life & Health - Medical Intelligence

Nicola is considered a leading expert in Public Health and associated Mortality, Morbidity & Longevity risk.

Areas of specialist knowledge include; public health policy, socioeconomic disparities, impact of risk behaviours on life expectancy & future infectious disease risks.

Nicola supports actuaries from many of the leading consultancies, pension & insurance companies in Europe and the US, with underwriting, annuity pricing, product development as well as internal model calibration to fulfil regulatory requirement.

She leads a small research team within Medical Intelligence and continues to regularly present her work and speak at events for and on behalf of clients and to wider public audiences.

Prior to co-founding Medical Intelligence in 2007, Nicola worked for the NHS for 19 years specialising in Public Health, this followed many years in senior roles in Intensive Care Nursing and Paediatrics.

Nicola trained as a nurse and subsequently studied at Homerton College University of Cambridge, graduating with a PgDip in Neonatal Special and Intensive Care followed up with a BSc (Hons) in Public Health (Specialist Community).

Nicola has also studied Epidemiology with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Statistics.

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