COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
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Better testing for a COVID-19 exit strategy

Bulletin 105 | Gordon Woo

Vaccines alone cannot resolve the COVID-19 crisis. We need to follow the virus, not just the disease: this requires a fully functioning NHS Testing and Tracing system (NHSTT) to contain outbreaks. New variants with increased infectiousness have made this more important.

There is reason to hope that a fully functioning NHSTT can be established in 2021. Measures recommended by SAGE behavioural scientists to encourage compliance with isolation and quarantine can be adopted, and technological advances in diagnostic testing can increase the capacity and speed of testing.

Ideally, an instant, accurate and low-cost test is needed for a robust COVID-19 exit strategy. Recent developments in aptamer research offer hope that such a test may arrive this year.

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Gordon Woo

Catastrophist - Risk Management Solutions

Dr. Gordon Woo is an architect of the RMS LifeRisks pandemic risk model, which was developed in 2006, at the time of the H5N1 avian flu crisis.

He has contributed widely to the IFoA literature on pandemics, including writing an actuarial perspective on pandemics for the special pandemics edition of the 2015 longevity bulletin, and an article on the age-dependence of the 1918 pandemic.

His IFoA talk on extreme pandemic scenarios in September 2016 included an alternative more transmissible version of MERS, which has similarities with COVID-19.

Trained at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, he is a visiting professor at UCL, and a visiting professor at NTU, Singapore.

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