Updated Mortality Projections from the CMI

Bulletin 108 | Andrew Gaches

The CMI’s latest mortality projections model CMI_2020, and accompanying working paper, show that users adopting the default parameterisations may observe around a 4 week decrease in projected life expectancy for a 65 year old man (compared to last year’s model), and around a 1 week decrease for a 65 year old woman. It should be noted that these impacts do not include any Covid-19 related effects (as they give no weight to the highly unusual 2020 mortality data, and do not allow for any change in the longer-term outlook).

In order to incorporate the likely impact of Covid-19 on future mortality evolution, users of the model will need to form their own view on the longer term impact of Covid-19, and use the parameters available in the model to capture those impacts.