COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Why have some countries paused use of the AstraZeneca vaccine?

Several countries have chosen to pause administering the AstraZeneca vaccine following reports of blood clots.

According to AstraZeneca, there have been 15 instances of deep vein thrombosis and 22 events of pulmonary embolism reported among more than 17 million people vaccinated in the European Union and UK.

However, it’s worth noting that the annual incidence of venous thromboembolism is approximately 2 in 1,000 of the general population, and the annual incidence of diagnosed pulmonary embolism in the UK has been reported as 7–8 per 10,000 people.

The risk varies substantially with age; for people under 40 years the annual incidence of venous thromboembolism is 1 in 10,000, whereas for people over 80 years the incidence rises to 1 in 100.

Therefore, the reported cases of thromboembolic events being reported in relation to the AstraZeneca vaccine are far fewer than might normally be expected in the absence of any vaccinations.

Whilst medical regulators are no-doubt seeking to apply the precautionary principle, these decisions risk increasing vaccine hesitancy within the relevant countries and beyond.

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Nicola Oliver

Director of Life & Health - Medical Intelligence

Nicola is considered a leading expert in Public Health and associated Mortality, Morbidity & Longevity risk.

Areas of specialist knowledge include; public health policy, socioeconomic disparities, impact of risk behaviours on life expectancy & future infectious disease risks.

Nicola supports actuaries from many of the leading consultancies, pension & insurance companies in Europe and the US, with underwriting, annuity pricing, product development as well as internal model calibration to fulfil regulatory requirement.

She leads a small research team within Medical Intelligence and continues to regularly present her work and speak at events for and on behalf of clients and to wider public audiences.

Prior to co-founding Medical Intelligence in 2007, Nicola worked for the NHS for 19 years specialising in Public Health, this followed many years in senior roles in Intensive Care Nursing and Paediatrics.

Nicola trained as a nurse and subsequently studied at Homerton College University of Cambridge, graduating with a PgDip in Neonatal Special and Intensive Care followed up with a BSc (Hons) in Public Health (Specialist Community).

Nicola has also studied Epidemiology with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Statistics.

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