COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Modelling the Return of Freedoms

Bulletin 122 | Matt Fletcher, Adele Groyer and John Roberts

On 14 June, a large batch of papers was published by SAGE. These set out further modelling of the impact of easing restrictions in England – in particular, moving to Step 4 of the roadmap. These were part of the decision-making process by the UK Government which resulted in delaying Step 4 from 21 June to 19 July.

Each of the modelling papers sets out many scenarios, using different assumptions for things like:

  • Vaccine uptake
  • Transmission advantage of Delta against Alpha
  • Vaccine efficacy
  • Behavioural impact in response to Step 4

The papers are emblematic of the uncertainty around the current position. Depending on the assumptions made, the models produce radically different projections of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Whilst it is clear that we are already at the start of a third wave of infections, there is uncertainty around the extent to which vaccination and prior infection will mitigate the impact on hospitalisations and deaths.

In this bulletin, we summarise the number of deaths that are projected under some of the key scenarios set out in the papers. We identify similarities and differences between the modelling approaches and consider what new evidence might be gathered in the coming weeks to determine which path the UK might be on.

The numbers of deaths and hospitalisations projected are especially sensitive to assumptions about vaccine efficacy against severe outcomes, and immune escape. Data is still emerging to support these assumptions for the Delta variant.

We consider the more extreme adverse scenarios unlikely given the latest evidence on the effectiveness of two doses of the vaccine against hospitalisation and death, even for the Delta variant.

 
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Matthew Fletcher

Senior Consultant - AON

Matt has over 20 years’ consultancy experience, including over 10 years as a specialist in mortality and longevity. He works in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team, advising insurance companies and pension funds on setting best estimates and evaluating risk for longevity and other demographic assumptions, both in the UK and overseas.

Matt chairs the CMI Self-Administered Pension Schemes (SAPS) Committee, which produces mortality tables that are used extensively in the pensions and insurance industries.

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Adele Groyer

Research and Analytics Actuary - Gen Re

Adele Groyer is a Research and Analytics Actuary at Gen Re. She was previously responsible for the UK and Ireland pricing team, conducting general research and producing client-specific quotations for Life, Disability, Long Term Care and Critical Illness business. She is a member of the CMI Assurances Committee. Before joining Gen Re in 2008, she worked for Old Mutual in South Africa. Adele holds a Bachelor of Business Science degree from the University of Cape Town and became a fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2005.

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John Roberts

Independent Consultant

John is an independent consultant who has spent 37 years in the life industry, including 17 years at Canada Life and more recently 8 years at Zurich Insurance Group, where he was part of the team that established its corporate risk business, now well established in the market. Following that he was Head of the Life Pricing team at Zurich for 5 years, overseeing a wide range of wealth and protection propositions.

At Zurich he helped establish its small pension scheme longevity swap proposition, which involved setting up simultaneous reinsurance transactions to mirror the client contracts. He has most recently continued with this line of interest as a consultant, supporting Lloyds Banking Group in establishing its first longevity swap transactions.

John is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries.

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