COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Modelling Freedoms – July and Beyond

Bulletin 126 | Matt Fletcher, Adele Groyer and John Roberts

Updated SAGE papers have been published setting out modelling of the impact of easing restrictions in England – in particular, moving to Step 4 of the roadmap on July 19th, delayed from June 21st. As in June, the publications include detailed modelling papers by three teams and an overall summary.

As in our June bulletin, we summarise the number of deaths that are projected under some of the key scenarios set out in the papers. We also comment on hospitalisation figures where possible.

Whilst the three models all use slightly different approaches and periods, they now appear much closer in terms of central projections (to the extent they exist), being in the order of 30,000 to 40,000 deaths over the next few months. Many scenarios show daily hospitalisation peaks below that of the second wave peak but there are scenarios where this may be exceeded. However, peaks in deaths are likely to be considerably lower than those seen in January 2021.

The consensus document highlights that all models are subject to considerable uncertainty. The main uncertainties (and thus sensitivities) remain vaccine efficacy, where even an apparently small change can have a large impact in the results, and the extent to which the population exercises its restored freedom. The Prime Minister, announcing the decision to go ahead next Monday, encouraged people not to “tear the pants off it”, quoting a memorable phrase from earlier in the pandemic. A briefing on the outputs of these models may well have been behind the caution expressed – it is a cautionary note that we would agree with, given the risks involved in the removal of restrictions.

 
Avatar photo

Matthew Fletcher

Senior Consultant - AON

Matt has over 20 years’ consultancy experience, including over 10 years as a specialist in mortality and longevity. He works in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team, advising insurance companies and pension funds on setting best estimates and evaluating risk for longevity and other demographic assumptions, both in the UK and overseas.

Matt chairs the CMI Self-Administered Pension Schemes (SAPS) Committee, which produces mortality tables that are used extensively in the pensions and insurance industries.

Avatar photo

Adele Groyer

Research and Analytics Actuary - Gen Re

Adele Groyer is a Research and Analytics Actuary at Gen Re. She was previously responsible for the UK and Ireland pricing team, conducting general research and producing client-specific quotations for Life, Disability, Long Term Care and Critical Illness business. She is a member of the CMI Assurances Committee. Before joining Gen Re in 2008, she worked for Old Mutual in South Africa. Adele holds a Bachelor of Business Science degree from the University of Cape Town and became a fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2005.

Avatar photo

John Roberts

Independent Consultant

John is an independent consultant who has spent 37 years in the life industry, including 17 years at Canada Life and more recently 8 years at Zurich Insurance Group, where he was part of the team that established its corporate risk business, now well established in the market. Following that he was Head of the Life Pricing team at Zurich for 5 years, overseeing a wide range of wealth and protection propositions.

At Zurich he helped establish its small pension scheme longevity swap proposition, which involved setting up simultaneous reinsurance transactions to mirror the client contracts. He has most recently continued with this line of interest as a consultant, supporting Lloyds Banking Group in establishing its first longevity swap transactions.

John is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries.

Follow us

Don't be shy, get in touch. We love meeting interesting people and making new friends.

Most popular