Excess Mortality in Australia

The authors have been analysing excess mortality in Australia throughout the pandemic. Results are summarised as follows:

• In 2020, despite 900 COVID deaths, total deaths were 3% lower than predicted (-4,500). The driver was lower deaths from respiratory disease. This was due to measures introduced to limit COVID, such as lockdowns, border closures and social distancing. The measures directly reduced respiratory deaths and had secondary impacts on other causes of death, primarily dementia.
• In 2021, total deaths were 2% higher than predicted (+3,200). The excess included almost 1,400 COVID deaths. Respiratory deaths were again much lower than predicted, as were dementia deaths. All other causes except cancer were higher than predicted.
• For the first six months of 2022, total deaths were 13% higher than predicted (+11,200). There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half of the excess. Respiratory deaths continued to be lower than expected, however deaths from all other causes were significantly higher.

The measurement of higher numbers of deaths than predicted does not tell us why this is occurring. There are a few reasons hypothesised around the world (where non-COVID excess is arising to a greater or lesser extent). It isn’t possible to identify from death counts alone what is causing the non-COVID excess, but we discuss the most likely explanations.

Of the possible explanations for non-COVID excess mortality in Australia in 2022, we believe that post-COVID sequelae and interactions with other causes of death are likely to be the most significant factor.

Recent COVID Deaths

While the ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics data is only available up to the end of June 2022, surveillance COVID deaths are available up to the end of September 2022. In July to September 2022, there were approximately 5,300 COVID deaths. Reported COVID deaths in July and August were the highest yet reported in the pandemic.

If you would like regular updates of Australian excess mortality you can follow Karen (KarenCutter4) and Jennifer (Actuarialeye) on Twitter.

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