COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Is the UK Experiencing a Second Wave?

With COVID-19 case numbers again rising rapidly in the UK we examine various public data sources. We discuss what these suggest about the recent spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Whilst rising case numbers in isolation might initially have been explained-away by more and better targeted testing, it is now clear that there is a genuine rise in infections.

It has been argued that a rise in infections is not necessarily cause for concern if it is contained within the young and healthy segment of the population, and hence does not result in a marked increase in hospitalisations and deaths. We do not share that view given the unknown long-term consequences of infection.

In any event, we present evidence that hospital admissions with COVID-19 are rising sharply. We use these to estimate that R was around 1.6 at the end of August. Crucially, there are signs that COVID-19 deaths in hospitals may now also be beginning to rise.

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Stuart McDonald

Stuart is Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP). He works across the Actuarial and Health Analytics teams, helping clients understand and manage the long-term
health and economic implications of the pandemic.

Prior to joining LCP he was responsible for demographic assumptions at Scottish Widows and previously led Munich Re’s longevity pricing team.

Stuart plays an active role within the actuarial profession, and is Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Early in 2020 he founded and co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Stuart was awarded an MBE for services to Public Health in the 2022 New Year Honours.

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