COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Are COVID-19 Victims Already “on Death Row”?

Bulletin 10 | By Matthew Edwards

Although many COVID-19 deaths involve those with chronic health problems (e.g. diabetics), such health problems are normal at high ages. People with managed conditions such as diabetes, even in the presence of adverse risk factors (e.g. obesity, smoking) would generally have several years of life expectancy at high ages.

The contention that the majority of this year’s COVID-19 victims would have died this year absent the coronavirus is incorrect.

Furthermore, it is a dangerous message as it could easily lead to an ‘it doesn’t matter’ attitude to the health crisis, and in particular, could weaken the case for social distancing.

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Matthew Edwards

Actuary & Director - Willis Towers Watson

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses.

He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

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