COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Stanford’s Contrasting Fatality Estimates

Bulletin 35 | By Matthew Edwards and Stuart McDonald

Over the past couple of days two groups of Stanford academics have published greatly contrasting estimates of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19.

We briefly examine both papers and consider them in the context of other work done in this area (including our related work using Italian data).

We conclude that the study by Grewelle and De Leo, with its estimate of 1.0% for the IFR globally, looks plausible and in line with much other work in this area.

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Matthew Edwards

Actuary & Director - Willis Towers Watson

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses.

He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

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Stuart McDonald

Stuart is Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP). He works across the Actuarial and Health Analytics teams, helping clients understand and manage the long-term
health and economic implications of the pandemic.

Prior to joining LCP he was responsible for demographic assumptions at Scottish Widows and previously led Munich Re’s longevity pricing team.

Stuart plays an active role within the actuarial profession, and is Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Early in 2020 he founded and co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Stuart was awarded an MBE for services to Public Health in the 2022 New Year Honours.

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