COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Care homes – Forgotten by us, not by COVID

Care homes have become a controversial topic in the pandemic, for the saddest of reasons. They have experienced a very high COVID-19 mortality rate, caused to some degree by poor policy. This is analogous to what happened in some other countries, Italy for example.

The prioritisation of provision of sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) to NHS hospitals over care homes resulted in staff being placed at increased risk, and increased the likelihood of rapid spread within the care homes.

In this bulletin, we summarise the experience to date. Around 1-in-7 care home residents died between 13 March and 5 June – doubling the toll that might have otherwise been expected. We also draw out lessons for the future.

Bulletin 43 | Dan Ryan and Adrian Baskir

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Dan Ryan

Chief Science Officer - COIOS Research

Dan is an epidemiologist and digital demographer with 25 years experience in the insurance industry.

He led global multi-disciplinary research teams at Swiss Re and Willis Towers Watson in diverse areas including forward-looking risk models, behavioural science and the rapid development of digital ecosystems that will transform how insurance is distributed and how risk is assessed, managed and mitigated.

Dan is an internationally recognised expert on demographic trends, emerging insurance risks and digital innovation. He pioneered the concept of disease-based models of mortality using electronic health records and was a key contributor to the development of the Pandemic Emergency Facility with the Institute of Medicine, WHO and World Bank.

Dan has an MA in Medical Sciences from Cambridge University and an MBA from Heriot-Watt University. He is currently engaged in a DHealth at the University of Bath that is examining the role of medication adherence in improving the management of hypertension in stroke.

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Adrian Baskir

Chief Commercial Actuary
Bupa Insurance

Adrian has over 30 years experience in the insurance industry with over 20 years’ experience specifically in health insurance. He has worked at Bupa for over 9 years and has been in his current role since 2019 having previously been Chief Actuary in International Markets. He previously held senior roles at Old Mutual both in South Africa and UK.

He has been very active within the actuarial profession where he is currently Chair of the International Actuarial Association Health Section (IAAHS) and a Member of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Health & Care Board. He was President of the Actuarial Society of South Africa in 2006/7 and also served 3 years on the IFOA Council.

Adrian obtained his B Bus Sci (Hons) degree from the University of Cape Town in 1985 and qualified as a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries in 1991. He moved from South Africa to the UK in 2009 and lives and works in London.

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