COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Is COVID-19 seasonal?

Bulletin 49

Common coronaviruses are highly seasonal, with cases peaking in winter months. As we move out of lockdown and through the summer months in the Northern hemisphere, an obvious question is whether COVID-19 exhibits seasonality, as this will have a direct impact on the timing and level of any second wave of infection.

This bulletin considers the factors typically involved in seasonality of diseases, and the research on the likely seasonality of COVID-19.

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Matthew Fletcher

Senior Consultant - AON

Matt has over 20 years’ consultancy experience, including over 10 years as a specialist in mortality and longevity. He works in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team, advising insurance companies and pension funds on setting best estimates and evaluating risk for longevity and other demographic assumptions, both in the UK and overseas.

Matt chairs the CMI Self-Administered Pension Schemes (SAPS) Committee, which produces mortality tables that are used extensively in the pensions and insurance industries.

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