COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
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Modelling COVID: What Have We Learned?

IAA / NoCA Webinar | Modelling COVID

Actuaries have been at the forefront in modelling COVID. Models have been built for cumulative and daily numbers of cases, hospitalisations, deaths and recoveries. Case fatality rates and infection rates have been followed with great interest in the public domain.

The pandemic, with its associated human tragedy, has been devastating for many families. This has presented new challenges for policy-makers, governments, corporates and others. The actuarial profession has demonstrated huge added value to all in our contribution.

In this webinar four of our members share what we have learned about modelling COVID-19 in 2020. The webinar was co-hosted by the International Actuarial Association and the Network of Consulting Actuaries.

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Matthew Fletcher

Senior Consultant - AON

Matt has over 20 years’ consultancy experience, including over 10 years as a specialist in mortality and longevity. He works in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team, advising insurance companies and pension funds on setting best estimates and evaluating risk for longevity and other demographic assumptions, both in the UK and overseas.

Matt chairs the CMI Self-Administered Pension Schemes (SAPS) Committee, which produces mortality tables that are used extensively in the pensions and insurance industries.

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Matthew Edwards

Actuary & Director - Willis Towers Watson

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses.

He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

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Louis Rossouw

Segment Head of Research & Analytics - Gen Re

As Head of Research and Analytics in his segment Louis Rossouw is based in Gen Re’s Cape Town office and him and his team support life insurance clients in the UK, South Africa, Canada, Australia and New Zealand with research and analytics. He has previously worked on individual pricing and product development, group pricing and reserving. Louis joined Gen Re in 2001. He has also worked for two years in Gen Re’s Singapore branch as Regional Chief Actuary. He currently serves on the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Continuous Statistical Investigation Committee.

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Stuart McDonald

Stuart is Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP). He works across the Actuarial and Health Analytics teams, helping clients understand and manage the long-term
health and economic implications of the pandemic.

Prior to joining LCP he was responsible for demographic assumptions at Scottish Widows and previously led Munich Re’s longevity pricing team.

Stuart plays an active role within the actuarial profession, and is Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Early in 2020 he founded and co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Stuart was awarded an MBE for services to Public Health in the 2022 New Year Honours.

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