COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
2020 Mortality Change

2020 Mortality in Context

It was real pleasure to support Ed Conway in putting together his detailed examination of 2020 mortality in historical context. I was hugely impressed with his engagement with the topic and how he got to grips with the metrics and was able to explain them to the public. I think that really comes across in this video.

For those who prefer the written word, the article below takes the reader on the same journey. It shows the various lenses by which we can view the pandemic’s impact on mortality.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275

And if you only have a couple of minutes, here are some highlights from Twitter.

First, excess deaths, comparing each year to the five years that preceded it (as per ONS).

Next, age-standardised mortality rates.

Finally, annual mortality improvement showing the 13% worsening in mortality between 2019 and 2020 – something not seen since 1929.

I’d like express my gratitude to the CMI, and in particular Jon Palin, for support pulling together the data and analysis. Jon even took some time to go through 90-year old cause of death data so we could validate what was driving the increases in deaths!

1929 Causes of Death

A very satisfying collaboration, taking actuarial analysis to a far wider audience than in usually the case!

Avatar photo

Louis Rossouw

Segment Head of Research & Analytics - Gen Re

As Head of Research and Analytics in his segment Louis Rossouw is based in Gen Re’s Cape Town office and him and his team support life insurance clients in the UK, South Africa, Canada, Australia and New Zealand with research and analytics. He has previously worked on individual pricing and product development, group pricing and reserving. Louis joined Gen Re in 2001. He has also worked for two years in Gen Re’s Singapore branch as Regional Chief Actuary. He currently serves on the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Continuous Statistical Investigation Committee.

Avatar photo

Stuart McDonald

Stuart is Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP). He works across the Actuarial and Health Analytics teams, helping clients understand and manage the long-term
health and economic implications of the pandemic.

Prior to joining LCP he was responsible for demographic assumptions at Scottish Widows and previously led Munich Re’s longevity pricing team.

Stuart plays an active role within the actuarial profession, and is Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Early in 2020 he founded and co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Stuart was awarded an MBE for services to Public Health in the 2022 New Year Honours.

Follow us

Don't be shy, get in touch. We love meeting interesting people and making new friends.

Most popular