COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Younger Admissions – Fewer Deaths

Younger Admissions

In our note ‘Accelerating Admissions, we discussed the implications of recent NHS hospital data (the title says it all!). We examined the age distribution of COVID-19 admissions, which showed a clear reduction in age through 2021. Our analysis was limited by broad age bands (in particular, the 18 to 64 age range which is of particular interest).

We have now analysed ONS data on hospitalisation rates by age, which offers much greater granularity but required some (simple) calculations. The data provide a more granular age breakdown of admissions, expressed as rates per 100,000 people. Using ONS population data we can convert these rates into counts, and calculate the average age in each band. This allows us to see how the age distribution has moved.

This graph shows total COVID admissions in England (left axis), split by age, along with the movement in average age (right axis):

Count of hospital admissions by age band over time

Here we have the same data, re-presented to highlight the proportions by age group:

Proportion of hospital admissions by age band over time

It is clear that the average age decreased significantly over the period, by around 20 years from 66 (in mid-February) to 46 (last week of June). This is a major shift, and reflects the high vaccination proportions achieved at higher ages.

Fewer Deaths

We can draw some conclusions about the likely mortality impact of this age reduction.

This paper included an estimate of mortality rates for COVID-19 hospital patients by age band. We can apply the mortality rates to the decreasing age range seen above.

Doing this shows a reduction in the average mortality rate from around 20% in mid-February to 10% by end June. Thus, we can confidently say that the impact of this age reduction is a halving of mortality.

This simple calculation has not assumed any change to COVID mortality (for hospitalised patients) relating to the Delta variant. We are not aware of any conclusive results on the mortality of the Delta variant (compared with earlier variants) on a ‘like for like basis’. This is because the UK deaths arising from Delta include vaccinated people, while deaths from previous variants were largely ‘pre-vaccine’.

Conclusion

  • The age of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in England has dropped dramatically this year. The average age decreased by 20 years, from 66 to 46, between February and June;
  • This age reduction alone would be expected to reduce mortality of those patients by 50%.
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Matthew Edwards

Actuary & Director - Willis Towers Watson

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses.

He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

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Stuart McDonald

Stuart is Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP). He works across the Actuarial and Health Analytics teams, helping clients understand and manage the long-term
health and economic implications of the pandemic.

Prior to joining LCP he was responsible for demographic assumptions at Scottish Widows and previously led Munich Re’s longevity pricing team.

Stuart plays an active role within the actuarial profession, and is Deputy Chair elect of the Continuous Mortality Investigation. Early in 2020 he founded and co-chairs the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.

Stuart was awarded an MBE for services to Public Health in the 2022 New Year Honours.

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