Excess Deaths Presentation

Stuart made a guest appearance on the Independent SAGE weekly briefing to give a presentation on excess deaths.

The discussion covered what we mean by excess deaths and different ways of measuring these, whether by simple counts or the more accurate approach using age-standardised mortality rate. However we approach it, the baseline matters.

Death rates have historically fallen over time so the last three years of mortality above pre-pandemic levels are very unusual. Most of the excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 were driven directly by COVID but more recently there are a number of interacting drivers. These include:

• Demand pressures on the healthcare system
  • Ambulance waiting time for Cat 2 emergencies > 1 hour
  • Over 700,000 A&E attendances > 4 hours in December alone.
• Deaths arising directly from COVID and from late 2022 also flu.
• Summer heatwaves and cold winter – cost of living adds to this.
• Missed and delayed diagnoses from early in the pandemic
  • e.g. BHF research showed half a million missed new blood pressure prescriptions.
• Elevated cardiovascular risks following COVID infection.

It is important to look beyond aggregate excess to understand what is going on. There are different trends by age, sex, place and cause of death. The balance has shifted considerably over the course of the pandemic.

You can watch the full excess deaths presentation here:

Slides below: